Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Quest for 2000- Lance Dunbar

So here is my first installment of the Quest for 2000.
I have broken down and analyzed who has the potential to run for 2000 yards in a season. We begin with:

Lance Dunbar, North Texas Mean Green

If you are at all relevant in the college fantasy football world, this name is not foreign. Lance Dunbar broke into the scene around the fourth week of the season with 101 yards on just 5 carries against Middle Tennessee State. Here is a breakdown of the pros and cons on Lance Dunbar becoming the next 2000 yard rusher in college football.


Averaged 25 carries per game after becoming the starter (Cam Montgomery injured)

Cam Montgomery graduated so he is the undisputed starter

Returns 5 Offensive Lineman with starting experience

2 games of over 200 yards rushing

Workhorse but also explosive- 5 50+ yard runs

Returning top Quarterback and receivers

100+ yards games- 8 20+ carry games- 5 Avg. Yards per game- 115 Starter- 147.5

Analysis: Dunbar finished the year with a very respectable 1378 yards on just 200 carries. He had to be the focal point of the offense and if Todd Dodge knows what is good for him, he should do the same this year. I like that he proved to be able to take a beating as witnessed by his 5 20+ carry games but that he has the YPC and explosiveness to make the most of his carries.


Averaged only 17 carries per game last season

Predominantly pass oriented offense

Bad defense means they have to abandon the run sometimes

Sometimes gets shut down by good defenses (Alabama, ULM)

Mike Canales as OC

Analysis: I know that North Texas under Todd Dodge has wanted to be a passing team and that's why I worry a bit about Dunbar's carries although it seems that Dodge has fit his system to his players and not the other way around. Another point against his journey to 2000 is that they have a bad defense which requires them to shut down the run early. They also get shut down by good defenses which just mutes Dunbar's productivity for that week. Lastly, with the addition of Mike Canales as offensive coordinator, one must only look to USF for how many 1000 yard rushers they have had, which has been zero since Andre Hall.

Overall Analysis:

Overall, I think Lance Dunbar has a good chance of breaking the 2000 yard barrier. I know that on draft day he will be high on my board with the combination of power, explosiveness, and his ability to get receiving yards. If not a 2000 yard rusher, I think he is a lock for 2000 yards from scrimmage.

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